DETERIORATED FINANCIAL BALANCE: EVIDENCE IN THE BALANCE SHEET OF PRE-BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION COMPANIES IN LIGHT OF THE FLEURIET MODEL

evidências no balanço patrimonial em empresas pré-recuperação judicial à luz do modelo fleuriet

Abstract

The predictability of corporate insolvency is a central theme in finance, as traditional models based on static liquidity ratios often fail to capture the dynamics of prior financial deterioration. Against this backdrop, the guiding research question of this study is: does the Fleuriet Model, applied to balance sheets in the years preceding a Judicial Reorganization filing, consistently indicate the deterioration of capital structure? The primary objective was to analyze the effectiveness of the Dynamic Working Capital Analysis indicators — Working Capital (WC), Working Capital Requirement (WCR), and Treasury Balance (T) — in the early detection of such imbalances. The methodology was descriptive and quantitative in nature, using secondary data from 19 publicly traded companies listed on B3, with a longitudinal analysis of the three fiscal years prior to the reorganization filing. The results revealed the occurrence of the "Scissors Effect" in the majority of the sample (84%), demonstrating that the chronic insufficiency of Working Capital to finance the Working Capital Requirement generated an unsustainable dependence on erratic short-term resources (negative Treasury Balance), validating the Fleuriet Model's capacity to anticipate insolvency diagnosis compared to traditional metrics.

Keywords: Fleuriet Model. Insolvency. Dynamic Analysis.